Yup folks, mark your calendar, I was wrong!
The State of Wisconsin primary election was held yesterday and I fully expected that the progressive (read Sociommunist) Francesca Hong was going to have a landslide victory in the Democratic Party primary for Governor. Wisconsin has an open primary where anyone can vote for anyone in any party.
I hang out with a group of people every week for an early morning breakfast and political chat about current events and at our last breakfast one of the people challenged all of us to put a dollar in the pot and guess what percentage Francesca Hong was going to get in the primary election. Most people guesses below 50% but a couple of us guessed above that 50% mark. I personally guessed a whopping 72%, I intentionally went to the absurd for a few reasons.
- I don’t usually participate in predicting things like this, so absurd is my go-to response.
- I live in Dane County Wisconsin which is the most left leaning progressive county in the State of Wisconsin, it’s so far left leaning that it’s been called a “ideological bubble surrounded by reality”. My perspective of the political left is a bit skewed because of my surroundings, I know that and I usually try to adjust for it, but this time I went straight for the absurd.
- Based on what I’ve seen the Democratic Party do across the USA in support of the absurd extremes over the last 10 years, I figured that Hong would get over 50%.
- Based on the rumblings of some Dane County Republicans that have openly stated that they were going to vote for Hong to advance her to the general election because she was far more beatable because of her extremism. So I took that 50% from above, added a good 10% in my head because Republicans voting for a Democrat, then added another 10% because Wisconsin has seemed to be shifting more towards the extreme over the last 10+ years.
- So my instant brain math came up with 70% and then I added another 2% just for a small buffer.
[UPDATE]
I just realized this…
As Ann Althouse wrote…
“Why were the polls so bad?! The final Marquette poll, from July 22–27, released July 29, had Hong at 38% and Crowley at 7%. There was also another candidate at 16% (Barnes), but he dropped out. Still, giving all the Barnes votes to Crowley would only put Crowley at 23%. That 38% for Hong looked awfully strong.”
How the heck did the Marquette Poll, usually one of the best in the USA, get it so terribly wrong? I usually don’t put much stock in political polls, but, I saw those polls too and I’m sure it was an unconscious part of the reason I thought that Hong was going to have a landslide victory. That poll might have biased me more than I thought.
[END OF UPDATE]
Well folks I wasn’t just wrong, I was absurdly wrong!
The state wide election numbers shocked me a bit; Hong only got 39% (311,495 votes) state wide and she was defeated by a bit more moderate Democrat David Crowley with 40% (315,278 votes) state wide; the other six candidates all had less than 10% each totaling between them at around 21%.
What really shocked me was the vote counts in this extremely progressive bubble of Dane County. Hong only got 44.01% (66,914 votes) in the county and Crowley got 36.66% (55,732 votes) and the other candidates trailed behind totaling 19.33%. That means that 55.99% of Democratic Party primary voters in the most ideological extreme progressive county in the State of Wisconsin voted against the most ideologically extreme progressive candidate on the ballot! The majority of the political left rejected Hong in the Dane County Wisconsin ideological bubble and that’s really saying something profound and should not be ignored!
It appears that there has been a political shift within the Democratic Party within Dane County Wisconsin!
As for the total votes cast in Dane County for Democrats and Republicans, here are the numbers:
- Democrats: 152,032 votes (88.73%)
- Republicans: 19,312 voted (11.27%)
Using those vote totals, the Democrats are still dominating in Dane County. Yes I know it was just a primary, but holy shit, don’t Republicans care to speak their voice and vote anymore?
Lastly; seeing the majority of the Democratic Party Dane County voters shift away from an obvious extremist is a really good thing. Now as we head into the general election for Governor of Wisconsin phase, I’m really hoping that the Democratic Party candidate, Crowley, doesn’t shift to the extremes to pander for extreme votes, but I’m sure he’s going to have to be careful not to completely alienate the extremes within his party. We’ll have to pay close attention to what he says to select groups and watch out for subtle policy shifts. If by chance Crowley get’s elected as the Governor, I really hope he doesn’t blind-side the moderate voting population and shift to extreme policies the way some other Democratic Party elected Governors have done.
I have new level of hope for some moderation coming from the political left, including Dane County, but I’ve got to be really honest, that 39% of the state voters and 44% of Dane County voters supporting an obvious extremist is still very concerning.
Conclusion
I was wrong to make assumptions about the political left in Wisconsin and Dane County, I’ll learn from this experience.
P.S. I don’t think this is the last we’ll see of Hong in the Dane County area. Maybe Madison Mayor, Dane County Supervisor, State Senate, etc???
Steve, this was a really well said commentary. Thank you.
Thank you.
I just updated it with some additional information.
“She was at the unity breakfast this morning. Her comments last night before she knew she lost were appropriate and dignified. So far she has been a class act.” Dave Cieslewicz
Anyone who thinks Hong is abandoning her core beliefs is suffering from severe naïveté.
She specifically, and the DSA generally, are all in and playing the long game; you know…distancing itself from, as the always erudite AOC ingeniously giggles, Woke I.
They’re shredding/deleting what they can, and preparing to vigorously spin/deflect/deny what they can’t.
The Gotch